Lib-Dems facing poll wipe-out?
The political map of the Westcountry is on course to be dramatically redrawn, an analysis of how the region voted on June 4 reveals.
Across Devon and Cornwall, the Conservatives have made extraordinary gains in areas once considered rock-solid Lib-Dem.
With less than a year until a General Election must be called, the Western Morning News has looked in detail at how the results of the council and European polls show the extent to which the region's politics appears to be undergoing a radical overhaul.
Again and again, the Conservatives out-polled the Lib-Dems, even in constituencies where the Lib-Dem MP has an apparently insurmountable majority.
Tory Party chairman Eric Pickles told the WMN the apparent switch in support was "great for liberal democracy but bad for the Liberal Democrats".
"I think people want to make a change and they recognise that Liberal Democrats are an obstacle to that change," he said. "All those Lib-Dems who thought they were in safe seats no longer are."
Tory sources now believe they could take seven seats from the Lib-Dems after being shocked by their success in the June 4 polls. They include Camborne and Redruth, Newton Abbot, North Devon, South East Cornwall, St Austell and Newquay, St Ives, and Truro and Falmouth.
If the Tories' confidence proves to be accurate and the recent results do indicate a sea-change in Westcountry politics, senior Lib-Dems including Andrew George, Julia Goldsworthy and Nick Harvey would be defeated.
Torbay's Lib-Dem MP Adrian Sanders is also thought to be vulnerable, although the only elections held in his area this month were the European poll, making it harder to draw comparisons.
With a further three seats seeing no incumbent standing at the General Election, it could mean the new team of MPs which represents Devon and Cornwall in Westminster will be almost unrecognisable from today.
The Tories also have their sights set on Taunton as well as Somerton and Frome to make gains in Somerset.
The Lib-Dems sought to play down the significance of the results, insisting it was not possible to extrapolate local and European elections to predict the outcome of a General Election.
They have blamed low turnout, a "strong showing" from some smaller parties and "the effects of having been in administrative control of the areas for some years" for their drubbing in the South West.
However, Lib-Dem leader Nick Clegg acknowledged there was "clearly a strong challenge from the Conservatives".
Mr Clegg has been criticised by some inside his party for refocusing efforts – and resources – on taking on Labour in the north where greater gains could be made, at the expense of seats held in the South West.
One Lib-Dem MP in the Westcountry said they felt "cut loose" by the decision which they fear could spell the "end of an era" where the Lib-Dems have dominated in the region.
While voting behaviour in local and European elections cannot be directly transferred to intentions for a General Election, at the very least, the voting breakdown lays bare the scale of the challenge the Lib-Dems face if they are to hang on to their Westcountry heartland.
In the Devon County Council elections, the Tories ended the Lib-Dems' 20-year rule to take overall control.
The Tories received 42 per cent of the vote, up four points since the council was contested in 2005. The Lib-Dems slumped seven points to 30 per cent.
In Cornwall, the Conservatives received 34 per cent of the popular vote. The Lib-Dems trailed on 28 per cent.
In the European Parliament elections, the Conservatives received 28.2 per cent of the vote in Devon and Cornwall – up half a point since 2004. The Liberal Democrats saw their share drop by 1.8 per cent to 16.1 per cent. Labour's vote more than halved to 6.2 per cent.
Mike Smithson, election analyst and editor of PolitcalBetting.com, said the Westcountry would be the scene of "fierce Lib-Dem/Tory battles".
"It is going to be quite tough for the Lib-Dems, in the face of a Conservative Party which has got its act together."
He said that at the next election, the Lib-Dems would have around a dozen seats at risk across the county, many in Devon, Cornwall and Somerset.
"One great strength of the Lib-Dems is where they have got an incumbent who has built up a reputation. They tend to punch above their weight.
"It is going to be made much harder where it is a new candidate going forward."
With Lib-Dem stalwarts Matthew Taylor and Colin Breed standing down at the next election, and a new seat being added in Cornwall, the Lib-Dems' will be defending three seats in the county without an incumbent.
Six of the 18 seats in Devon and Cornwall to be contested at the next election will elect a new MP. In four areas, the incumbent is standing down and in two, the seat is newly created by the redrawing of constituency boundaries.
Nationally, the predictions of big change at a General Election focus on the battle between Labour and the Conservatives.
Labour's fortunes in the Westcountry are difficult to predict. Despite the collapse of their national share of the vote in the council elections – down to 23 per cent – the party hung on to its four seats on Devon County Council.
Labour's Exeter MP Ben Bradshaw said he was "much more thrilled by the election results" than his elevation to the Cabinet as Culture Secretary.
"Exeter showed Labour can still win where you have good hardworking councillors and a well-organised party," he said.
Seat-by-seat vote share was calculated from the results in electoral wards which fall substantially into the boundaries of the new constituencies which will be contested at the next election. The information is intended to be indicative and not a direct prediction of the result of a General Election. Notional majorities are taken from the Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies by University of Plymouth's elections analysts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher.
